Key points
- Do not assign the opponent one exact hand. Think in terms of a range.
- Use the visible cards and the opponent's actions to narrow the possible combinations.
- When the range changes, your equity changes too.
01Do Not Put Your Opponent on One Hand
You cannot see your opponent's hand until showdown. Instead of deciding, “They have AA,” think in terms of possibilities such as AA, KK, AKs, and AKo. This set of possible hands is their range.
A range contains both strong and weak hands. An opponent who bets does not always have a strong hand. Draws and bluffs may still be in their range.
The goal is not to guess their exact two cards. It is to estimate which hands are in their range and how likely each is, then use that estimate to choose your action.
02Count the Range in Combinations
Even hands with the same name can have several suit combinations. AA has 6 combinations, AKs has 4, and AKo has 12. See Starting Hands for details.
Visible cards cannot be in your opponent's hand. If you hold one A and there is no A on the board, your opponent has 3 possible combinations of AA. This is because 2 cards must be chosen from the 3 remaining aces.
The same applies to board cards. If you do not hold a 9 and there is one 9 on the board, your opponent has only 3 combinations of 99.
03Narrow the Range After Every Action
Start with a preflop range based on position and action. A player who raises from early position will usually have a tighter range because many opponents are still left to act. The range also changes depending on whether they called a raise or 3-bet. If you know the opponent's tendencies, adjust your estimate.
- 1
Preflop
Set the initial range from position and whether the player raised or called.
- 2
Flop
Keep strong made hands, draws, and bluffs that fit the board.
- 3
Turn
Adjust how much of each hand remains based on the new card and whether the player checks or bets.
- 4
River
No more cards are coming. Use the action and bet size to estimate how much of the range consists of strong hands, medium hands, and bluffs.
If you skip the earlier actions and look only at the river bet, you may keep the wrong hands in the range. See Position for ranges by position and Starting Hands for spots where another player has already acted.
For example, the CO raises preflop and the BB calls. The flop is Q♣ 9♠ 6♠, the turn is 2♦, and the river is K♥.
- If the CO bets the flop, the range can still contain hands with a Q, overpairs, three of a kind, two spades, straight draws, and bluffs.
- A turn check does not eliminate strong hands. A player may check a strong hand to set up a bet on the next street.
- After a large river bet, consider the balance between strong hands and bluffs. The K also improved some hands containing a K.
Do not assume a single check means weakness. Instead, adjust the weight you give each hand in the range.
04Your Cards Reduce the Opponent's Combinations
A card in your hand can reduce the number of combinations available to your opponent. That card is called a blocker.
For example, if you hold one A and no other A or K is visible, your opponent's AKo combinations fall from 12 to 9. Your own hand strength has not changed, but the contents of your opponent's range have.
A blocker reduces the combinations but does not always remove them entirely. Holding an A does not mean your opponent cannot have AK.
05Your Equity Changes with the Range
Your chance of winning changes depending on whether you compare your hand with one specific hand or with an entire range. Against a range, add together the combinations of each hand.
Suppose the river board is A♣ 9♦ 7♠ 4♥ 2♣ and you hold K♠ K♥. Give your opponent a range of QQ, JJ, 99, and 77, with every combination remaining at the same weight.
| Opponent's hand | Result for K♠ K♥ |
|---|---|
| 6 combinations. The pair of kings wins | |
| JJ | 6 combinations. The pair of kings wins |
| 99 | 3 combinations (one 9 is on the board). Your pair of kings loses to three of a kind |
| 77 | 3 combinations (one 7 is on the board). Your pair of kings loses to three of a kind |
You beat 12 combinations and lose to 6. There are no ties, so your win percentage is 12 ÷ 18 = 66.7%.
In practice, hands are not always weighted equally in a range. If the opponent always bets QQ but bets JJ only half the time, QQ carries more weight in their range after the bet. Multiply the combinations by how often they take that action.
Once you have estimated your equity, compare it with the equity needed to call. See Pot Odds and Expected Value for how to make that comparison.
06Do Not Judge an Opponent from a Small Sample
If an opponent shows one bluff, their next bet is not necessarily a bluff. If they show a strong hand a few times, that does not mean they always act only with strong hands.
Your read can be wrong. What matters is whether you kept the hands that fit the actions you had seen. After seeing the result, you cannot claim that you knew their exact two cards from the start.
You need a larger sample to account for an individual opponent's tendencies. While you have little information, begin with a typical range and adjust it gradually as you collect more observations.
07Check Your Understanding with 3 Questions
Question 1Your opponent makes a large bet on the river. Which approach fits range-based thinking?
View answer
A large bet can represent either a strong hand or a bluff. Use the actions from preflop onward to estimate how much of each remains.
Question 2There is no A on the board, and you hold one A. How many combinations of AA can your opponent have?
View answer
There are 3 aces that could be dealt to your opponent. Choosing 2 of those 3 cards gives 3 combinations.
Question 3Assume there are no ties and every combination remains at the same weight. You beat 9 combinations in your opponent's range and lose to 3. What is your win percentage?
View answer
There are 12 combinations in total. Dividing the 9 winning combinations by 12 gives 75.0%.
08Try It in BlackPoker
BlackPoker's “Win odds based on the opponent’s actions” narrows the opponent's possible hole cards using their previous actions, then simulates about 600 deals. It estimates your chance of winning against the full range without looking at the opponent's two cards. It is available from the flop onward.
Because the number of simulations is limited, the result may vary by 1–2% even in the same situation.
Frequently asked questions
What is a poker range?
It is the set of hands an opponent may hold. Instead of one exact hand, you consider several hands together, such as AA, KK and AKs.
What is a blocker?
A blocker is a card you hold that reduces the number of combinations available to an opponent. If you hold one A, the opponent's AA combinations fall from 6 to 3.
Do you need to identify the opponent's exact hand?
No. The goal is to estimate the possible hands and how many combinations each has.
Produced and edited by Predy GamesPublished:Updated:Report an error:Contact
View range-based equity in BlackPokerBlackPoker is a single-player Texas Hold'em game played without real-money wagering. From the flop onward, it estimates equity after narrowing the opponent's range from their actions. You can compare it with your own read.
Go to BlackPoker