Key points
- For a bluff, compare the pot won when it succeeds with the amount lost when it fails.
- Required fold rate = bet amount ÷ (pot before betting + bet amount).
- With several opponents, it is harder to make everyone fold.
01When a bluff has positive EV
Bluffing is not simply betting with a weak hand. You bet because you expect your opponent to fold often enough.
Suppose the pot is 100 on the river. You bet 50 with a hand that will lose if called. Assume there can be no tie.
- Opponent folds (you win the 100 pot)+100
- Opponent calls (you lose the 50 you bet)−50
Positive EV if they fold more than 33.3%
For a bluff that loses when called, the break-even fold rate is the amount bet ÷ (pot before the bet + amount bet).
The larger your bet, the more often your opponent must fold. If a small bet can win a large pot, the bluff can have positive EV with a lower success rate.
Calculating the equity needed to call uses a different denominator
Here is the same 50 bet into a pot of 100, viewed from both sides.
| What you are calculating | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Fold rate required for the bluff | 50 bet ÷ (100 pot before the bet + 50) = 33.3% |
| Equity the opponent needs to call | 50 call ÷ 200 pot after calling = 25% |
The calculation from the caller's side is covered in Pot Odds and Expected Value. The same approach to bet amounts leads into Choosing Your Bet Size.
02Semi-bluffing with a hand that can improve
A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that is weak now but can make a strong hand on the turn or river. A hand that is one card away from a flush or straight is one example.
There are two ways to win. If your opponent folds immediately, you take the pot on the spot. If they call, you can still win by making a stronger hand later.
That means the decision is not based only on how often your opponent folds. Your chance of winning after a call is also part of the expected value.
However, you should not bet every draw. When your opponent is unlikely to fold, the bet has less fold equity. Also consider in advance whether you can continue if they raise. See Counting Outs for draw probabilities.
03Which hands to bluff with
Good bluffing candidates are hands that are unlikely to win if you check and reach showdown. A hand with some showdown value can check and preserve that chance of winning.
| Hand quality | Why it can work as a bluff |
|---|---|
| Unlikely to win as it stands | Checking and reaching showdown offers little value |
| Has cards that can improve it later | It still has a chance to win when called |
| Holds a card used in an opponent's strong hands | It reduces the number of ways the opponent can hold those hands |
The third type of card is called a blocker. For example, when the board has three cards of the same suit, holding the A of that suit means your opponent cannot have the ace-high flush. You should also check whether your blocker removes hands that your opponent might otherwise fold.
Do not decide to bet based on a blocker alone. First consider your opponent's previous actions and the range of hands that fits the board. See Reading Ranges for more.
04Bluffing is harder against multiple opponents
To take the pot with a bluff, every remaining opponent must fold. If one player folds but another calls, you do not win the pot immediately.
- Against one opponent, they fold50％
- Against two opponents, both fold25％
50% × 50% = 25%
If two opponents each fold 50% of the time independently, the chance that both fold is 25%. In practice, when the first player calls, the player behind may also become more likely to call. This is a simplified example showing why it becomes harder to make everyone fold as the number of opponents increases.
With several players still in the hand, the chance that someone has a strong hand also increases.
05Common mistakes
More bluffs are always better
If your opponent does not fold, bluffing more often only increases your losses. Consider the number of opponents, the previous action, the board, and the bet size to judge whether your opponent still has hands they can fold.
The weakest hands make the best bluffs
Weakness alone does not decide it. A hand with a draw may be a better bluffing candidate than a hand with no draw.
A large bet will make the opponent fold
A large bet does not necessarily make your opponent fold. What matters is whether your line from preflop onward and the board make it plausible for you to hold the strong hand you are representing.
Getting called means the decision was bad
You cannot judge the decision from a single result. In the example of betting 50 into a pot of 100, some calls are already included in the calculation when you bet expecting the opponent to fold more than 33.3% of the time.
06Check Your Understanding with 3 Questions
Question 1On the river, you bluff 60 into a pot of 60. You lose if called, and there can be no tie. How often must your opponent fold for the bluff to break even?
View answer
Divide the 60 bet by the total of the 60 pot before the bet and the 60 bet, which is 120. 60 ÷ 120 = 50.0%.
Question 2On the flop, you bet with a hand that is one card away from a flush. Assume the hand cannot win as it stands. How can this bet win?
View answer
A semi-bluff can win by making the opponent fold immediately or by improving after being called.
Question 3There are two opponents, and each folds half the time independently of the other player's action. How often will both opponents fold?
View answer
Both opponents must fold. 50% × 50% = 25%.
07Try It in BlackPoker
When BlackPoker's Advice compares expected values postflop, it also accounts for the chance that every opponent will fold if you bet. Preflop 3-bet bluffs are used only when your stack is more than 40BB.
On the Check your answer screen, you can also see folded opponents' cards. The figures and ranges used may change as the game is adjusted.
Frequently asked questions
Are bluffs made only with weak hands?
Current hand strength is not the only factor. Also consider whether you can improve and whether your cards block the opponent's strong hands.
How do you calculate the success rate a bluff needs?
Divide the bet by the pot before betting plus the bet. A bet of 50 into a pot of 100 needs 33.3%.
What is a semi-bluff?
It means betting a hand that is weak now but can improve later. You win if the opponent folds, and you can still win after a call by making a stronger hand.
Produced and edited by Predy GamesPublished:Updated:Report an error:Contact
See decisions that account for fold probability in BlackPokerBlackPoker is a single-player Texas Hold'em game played without real-money wagering. Postflop Advice compares expected value while accounting for the chance that everyone folds to a bet.
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