04 Decisions by street

IntermediateAbout 8 min readUpdated Figures 1 · Questions 3

How to Think Postflop

Postflop, do not base your decisions only on the hand you currently have. Work through your opponent's range, the amount bet, and the cards still to come.

Key points

  1. Before acting, check six things: players, position, pot and stack, board, opponent range and bet size.
  2. On the flop, consider the next card and what you may have to pay later.
  3. On the river, compare how often your hand wins against the opponent's betting range.

016 things to check before acting

What to checkWhat to look for
PlayersWhether one opponent remains or several
PositionWhether you or your opponent acts later
Pot and stacksThe current pot and the chips still available to bet
BoardMade hands and draws that could complete on the next card
Opponent's rangeHands that fit the action so far
Bet sizeHow much a call costs and the equity needed to call

You cannot see your opponent's cards. Use the action from preflop onward and the board to work out your opponent's likely range. See Reading Ranges for how to do this.

02What do you want your hand to accomplish?

Once you have checked those six points, decide what you want to accomplish with your hand. There are four main goals.

Your goal with the same hand can change depending on your opponent's range and action. The next sections examine three situations. See Bet Sizing for how to choose a bet size.

03Situation 1: Top pair

You have A♠ Q♥, and the flop is A♦ 9♣ 3♠. You have a pair of aces with a Q kicker.

First, consider the weaker hands that might call a bet. These include a pair of aces with AJ or A10, a pair of nines, and pocket pairs such as KK or JJ.

Next, consider the hands that beat you. These include AK, AA, 99, 33, A9, and A3. Which of these are in your opponent's range depends on the action from preflop onward.

All three cards are different suits, with few connected ranks. Few draws can complete on the next card, so there is less reason to bet big right away.

If your opponent still has many weaker aces in their range, consider betting to get called. If they continue only with strong hands, consider checking. Instead of thinking, “I have top pair, so I should bet,” first ask which hands will call.

04Situation 2: Flush draw

You have A♠ J♠, and the flop is K♠ 7♠ 2♦. Your opponent bets 5BB into a 10BB pot.

The pot will be 20BB after you call, so the equity needed to call is 5 ÷ 20 = 25%.

Any of the 9 remaining spades completes your flush.
Hole cardsA♠︎♠︎J♠︎♠︎BoardK♠︎♠︎7♠︎♠︎2♦︎♦︎

Flush

Q♠︎♠︎10♠︎♠︎9♠︎♠︎8♠︎♠︎6♠︎♠︎5♠︎♠︎4♠︎♠︎3♠︎♠︎2♠︎♠︎

Outs = 9 cards

Your chance of completing the flush on the next card is 19.1%, which is below 25%. The chance by the river is 35.0%, but you can compare that with the current 5BB only when you will see both cards without putting in any more chips. See Pot Odds and Expected Value for details.

An A may give you a pair that wins the hand. However, if your opponent has AK or three of a kind, you still lose when an A comes. If you count aces as outs, discount them.

Instead of calling, you could also raise and try to make your opponent fold. In that case, consider separately what happens when they fold and when they continue. If they continue, look at your chance of winning and how much you must pay. See How to Think About Bluffing for details.

05Reassess on the turn

On the turn, add the new card and your opponent's action, then review all six points.

In Situation 1, if the turn is 9♦, the board pairs. Hands such as K9 become three of a kind, while A9 and 93 become full houses. You cannot treat this the same as a low blank card.

In Situation 2, if the turn is not a spade, only the river remains. You complete the flush 9 ÷ 46 = 19.6% of the time. If your opponent bets again, recalculate the equity needed to call using that amount. Even if a spade comes, however, you can still lose to a full house if the board pairs.

06Situation 3: Calling on the river

On the river, there are no more cards to improve your hand. Estimate how often your current hand beats the range your opponent bets.

Suppose your opponent bets 20BB into a 20BB pot. The pot will be 60BB after you call, so the equity needed to call is 20 ÷ 60 = 33.3%. Winning once in every three calls is enough.

If your opponent bets 20BB only with strong hands, a medium-strength hand is unlikely to reach 33.3%. If their betting range at that size includes enough bluffs that you can beat, you can consider calling.

07When several opponents remain

When several opponents remain, the chance that at least one of them has a strong hand increases. Top pair may be strong heads-up, but you cannot treat it the same way when three or four players keep showing strength.

Even when the pot is large, you must beat every remaining opponent to win it outright. To take the pot immediately with a bet, you need everyone to fold.

If one player bets and another calls before the action reaches you, you have seen action from two players. Consider the hands that fit the caller's action as well.

08Check Your Understanding with 3 Questions

Question 1On the flop, your opponent bets 6BB into a 12BB pot. You have 9 outs and will see only the next card. Does your chance of hitting reach the equity needed to call?

View answer

The equity needed to call is 6 ÷ 24 = 25%. Your chance of hitting one of 9 outs on the next card is 19.1%, so it falls short.

Question 2On the river, your opponent bets 15BB into a 30BB pot. How much equity do you need to call?

View answer

The pot will be 60BB after you call. 15 ÷ 60 = 25.0%.

Question 3Three opponents remain on the flop. How many must fold for you to win the pot immediately with a bet?

View answer

If even one player calls, you do not win the pot immediately. Everyone must fold.

09Try It in BlackPoker

Postflop, the game shows “Outs ▸ N,” win odds based on the opponent’s actions, and the win odds needed to call. An out does not always give you the winning hand. You can compare all three as you make your decision.

Advice compares the expected value of checking, betting 40%, 70%, or 105% of the pot, calling, and raising, then suggests a move. For bets, it also accounts for the chance that everyone folds. The details of these calculations may change with future adjustments.

Frequently asked questions

What should you consider first on the flop?

Check six things: the number of players remaining, action order, pot and stack, board, opponent range and bet size.

Should you call with a flush draw?

Consider not only the chance of hitting, but also the equity needed to call and what you may have to pay after the next card. With 9 outs, the chance of hitting on the next card is 19.1%.

What should you consider on the river?

Check whether your current hand wins often enough against the opponent's betting range.

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Practice postflop decisions in BlackPokerBlackPoker is a single-player Texas Hold'em game played without real-money wagering. From the flop onward, the table displays your outs, estimated equity against the opponent's range and the equity needed to call.

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